India Labels China as Top Strategic Challenge, Pakistan as Secondary Concern: US Intelligence Analysis
A recent report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) highlights India’s shifting security priorities, identifying China as its “most significant strategic challenge” while treating tensions with Pakistan as a “secondary issue requiring careful management.” This assessment comes despite recent military clashes triggered by India’s targeted strikes on alleged terrorist bases in Pakistan earlier this month.
India-China Border Tensions Remain Volatile
According to DIA Director Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, friction along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains dangerously prone to rapid escalation. While both nations disengaged troops from key conflict zones in October 2024 and revived diplomatic mechanisms to address border disputes, the report warns that underlying disagreements over territorial claims persist. The lingering distrust stems from a deadly 2020 clash that claimed lives on both sides.
To counter Beijing’s influence, India is reportedly prioritizing defense partnerships across the Indian Ocean region through joint military drills, arms exports, and intelligence-sharing initiatives. Domestically, New Delhi continues to boost its “Make in India” defense program, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Recent milestones include tests of the Agni-I Prime and Agni-V nuclear-capable missiles, as well as the induction of a second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad.
Pakistan’s Focus: Deterring India’s Conventional Edge
In contrast, Pakistan perceives India as an “existential threat,” driving its pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons and military upgrades to counter New Delhi’s superior conventional forces. The DIA notes that Pakistan’s recent clashes with India saw extensive use of Chinese-made weaponry, including JF-17 and J-10C fighter jets and PL-15 missiles. Islamabad’s nuclear ambitions are reportedly supported by foreign suppliers, with China being its primary benefactor in both military and economic spheres.
The report also highlights Pakistan’s alleged procurement of dual-use technology—materials applicable to weapons of mass destruction (WMD)—through networks in China, Hong Kong, Turkey, and the UAE. Meanwhile, joint military exercises between Pakistan’s armed forces and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have become routine, deepening strategic ties.
India’s Balancing Act with Russia
Despite global pressure, India maintains defense ties with Russia, viewing the relationship as crucial for counterbalancing growing China-Russia collaboration. While New Delhi has scaled back purchases of Russian hardware, it still depends on Moscow for spare parts to maintain its Soviet-era tanks and aircraft, which form the backbone of its defenses against China and Pakistan.
Ceasefire Holds Amidst Fragile Peace
Following intense cross-border exchanges between May 7–10 involving missiles, drones, and artillery, Indian and Pakistani forces agreed to a full ceasefire. However, the DIA cautions that Pakistan’s continued development of battlefield nuclear weapons and India’s focus on countering Chinese influence suggest regional stability remains precarious.
As India navigates complex rivalries, its defense strategy appears centered on three pillars: fostering global leadership, containing Beijing’s assertiveness, and modernizing its military capabilities to address evolving threats.
